Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

By: Joel E. Gordon

Mark Twain famously popularized the saying, “there are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics” which is a phrase describing the persuasive power of statistics to bolster weak arguments. It is also sometimes used to doubt statistics used to prove an opponent's point.

It was over a decade ago that I was engaged in a conversation with a then University of Maryland college student over the validity of statistics. Based upon their studies and teachings the student insisted that quantitative statistics could simply be taken as absolute without any view toward methodology or the realization that statistics could be skewed with incomplete or inaccurate information. In effect garbage in, garbage out.

Deja Vu

When it comes to recent academic assertions that serious Part One crime in many categories based upon FBI Uniform Crime Reporting statistics is down over previous reports is this true? This is while in real time public perception is that serious crime is on the increase.

Is it lost on academia that the effect of police defunding results in less police to take reports of crime? That many have more recently given up on even calling the police due to a lack of confidence believing that appropriate actions or dispositions are unlikely?

This doesn’t even take into account political pressure to downgrade offenses for reporting purposes. Perhaps a burglary without known theft becomes a destruction of property due to point of entry damages?

Sometimes the opposite effect occurs due to interpretation of crime reporting criteria. Back in time, Baltimore City Police once categorized any assault involving a weapon to be reported as a Part One Aggravated Assault instead of a lesser Part Two Common (Simple) Assault. Of course, anything can be used as a weapon so in theory an unwanted touching by another with a piece of paper resulting in a small cut/laceration could be considered an Aggravated Assault? No wonder violent crime was considered to be escalated during a period of time in the 1980’s.

While quantitative and qualitative statistics have a place in analysis of crime, it is incumbent of all to realize that accuracy is not assured in reported interpretations or numbers. Even those with the best of intentions in the accuracy of reports for Uniform Crime Reporting data use are subject to inconsistencies or error.

For more detailed information on the nuances of determination of reported crime categories go to

https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2019/crime-in-the-u.s.-2019/topic-pages/offense-definitions

Joel E. Gordon, Managing Editor of BLUE Magazine, is a former Field Training Officer with the Baltimore City Police Department and is a past Chief of Police for the city of Kingwood, West Virginia. He has also served as vice-chair of a multi-jurisdictional regional narcotics task force. An award winning journalist, he is author of the book Still Seeking Justice: One Officer's Story and founded the Facebook group Police Authors Seeking Justice. Look him up at stillseekingjustice.com