Exposed: The Truth Behind America’s Fake Crime Drop

Caught Red Handed

Numerous accounts have appeared recently that many law enforcement agencies have been fudging the numbers when it comes to reporting crime data. Most of it centers around how certain crimes are classified. For example, an aggravated assault is counted and reported as a simple assault. Another is that an armed robbery is downgraded to a theft. The deliberate downgrading by police officials and prosecutors distorts what is really happening on the street. Whistleblowers are coming forward accusing police officials of “cooking the books” when it comes to reporting that crime is down in some areas. DC Police Union Chairman Gregg Pemberton told NBC News that Metropolitan Police claim of a cumulative decrease in violent crime in 2023 and 2024 is “preposterous.”

The Federal Bureau of Investigation collects what they call Uniform Crime Reporting, crime data reported to them by state and local law enforcement agencies. The FBI has two classes of crime. Part I crimes include homicide, forcible rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, and arson. These are obviously more serious crimes. Part II offenses is a list of basically less serious crimes such as fraud, embezzlement, prostitution, gambling as an example.

Cities like to parade around low crime numbers on serious offenses. Mayors and police chiefs tout them in news stories and news releases giving the impression that crime is under control and that their city is a safe place to live. The problem is that the numbers are misleading at best and a lie at worst. And that it is being done deceitfully and intentionally speaks to a lack of integrity by police officials and local politicians.

When it comes to reports of crime, the attitude of police chiefs needs to be, it is what it is. Do not massage the data, do not manipulate it. Report the truth. The FBI UCR has several problems associated with how it collects crime statistics. It has long had a reputation of not being reliable. One reason is that they rely on self reporting from police agencies. It has no standards for reporting. This leads to the hijinks and manipulation of the data. It is easy to cherry pick a few crime categories to report decreases in crime while ignoring categories that show an increase in crime. Making crime data a political tool is unethical.

In the election of 2024, the FBI reported right before voters were taking to the polls that violent crime had fallen in attempt to help Joe Biden win election before he eventually bowed out of the race. They later admitted that the numbers needed to be adjusted upward. Another thing inconveniently happened before the election. Several high profile violent crimes captured the public’s attention and made crime an issue that could determine the winner. President Trump ran on law and order and support of the police in 2024 like he did in his first run in 2020. The national media was pushing the false narrative to help Democrats running not only for President but for Congress.

I am a member of the Board of Directors for the think tank named the Crime Prevention Research Center. President of the Board John Lott, an economist and noted criminologist, recently published a research paper with the following conclusions after looking into some of the false narratives and data released just prior to the 2024 national election. Here are a few of the media stories at the time. National Public Radio reported that “Violent Crime is dropping fast in the U.S. even if Americans don’t believe it.” The Wall Street Journal ran a headline that, “Violent Crime Rate Falls Sharply After Pandemic Surge.” An Axios headline reported that, “New data shows violent crime dropping sharply in major U.S. cities.”

Compare and contrast that to crime data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. This center is viewed by many economists and criminologists to be a more reliable information and crime data gathering source. They survey victims of crime instead of self reporting by police agencies. The NCVS surveyed 240,000 people living in the U.S. as to whether they were the victim of a crime and if they reported it. Their data captures reported and unreported crime. FBI data does not consider unreported crime. A National Crime Victimization Survey shows that violent crime surged a whopping 59% with rape and sexual assault up 67%, robbery up 38% and aggravated assault up 62% between 2023 and 2024.

Here is another aspect of the FBI UCR data. Some large agencies no longer report crime data to the FBI. This too gives a false notion about how much crime has truly occurred. It can cause people and businesses to have a false sense of safety, and it is insensitive to victims of crime to have what they had gone through minimized for political reasons.

And then there is this aspect. Crime data is static. It does not measure the physical and emotional trauma associated with being victimized and it does not measure the fear of crime people have who have not been victimized. That is a quality of life issue. That is more important than data.

It is a crime in most states for citizens falsely report crime to police. That same standard should be used for high-ranking police officials who falsely report manipulated crime data to the FBI.

Sheriff David A. Clarke Jr. is former Sheriff of Milwaukee Co, Wisconsin, President of America’s Sheriff LLC, President of Rise Up Wisconsin INC, Board member of the Crime Research Center, author of the book Cop Under Fire: Beyond Hashtags of Race Crime and Politics for a Better America. To learn more visit www.americassheriff.com