Has Crime Decreased In Washington D.C. Since The President’s Interventions?
/Has Crime Decreased In Washington D.C. Since The President’s Interventions?
By: Leonard A. Sipes, Jr.
If you look at a recent CBS News story, the president’s anti-crime actions in Washington, D.C., are either widely supported or dismissed, depending on your political affiliation. We are in a cultural war over the deployment of troops and federal agents and perceptions of crime.
In any war, both sides exaggerate.
In many cities, people complain that wait times for a police officer to respond to a reported crime can take over an hour, if an officer appears at all. In Detroit, many claim that police response to property crimes is nonexistent. Per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we have lost 25,000 police officers and employees.
In other cities, the wait time to report a crime can be an hour or more. So, regardless of your beliefs about crime in D.C. or elsewhere, cops not appearing would scare anyone; it becomes a de facto statement about how you feel about crime. Per the D.C. union (below), understaffing is severe in the nation’s capital.
National Crime Statistics
About 38% of violent victimizations in urban areas were reported to police, which was lower than the percentages in suburban (43%) and rural (51%) areas, per the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the USDOJ. Based on that data, whatever crime statistics you use for D.C. or any other urban area are a considerable undercount.
According to the USDOJ’s National Crime Victimization Survey, violent crime increased in urban areas for its most recent yearly report.
The 2022 National Crime Victimization Survey offered the largest increase in violent crime in the nation’s history (44 percent), as recorded by analyst Jeff Asher, The Marshall Project, and ChatGPT. The high rates of violence continue unchanged for 2023 and 2024.
This is compared to a national reduction in reported violent crime of approximately 3-4 percent for 2023 and 2024 from the FBI. Independent analysts state that reported crime in cities has decreased considerably.
Fear Of Crime
With President Trump’s efforts to reduce crime in Washington, D.C., there are multiple articles in major publications warning Democrats not to fall into a trap where they seem insensitive to the plight of crime victims and those concerned about crime, which is most Americans.
Per Gallup, we are near record increases in fear of crime nationally. About 65 percent of D.C. residents told The Washington Post that crime was a “very” or “extremely” serious problem last year, even as violence declined. Per Axios, “As armed National Guard troops patrol the nation’s capital, a majority of Americans now see handling crime as a relative strength for President Trump, according to a new AP-NORC poll. According to the poll, 68 percent see crime as a “major problem” in large cities.”
I have been to multiple cities with crime problems courtesy of the federal government. I have never been in a city where the residents said that they do not want crime controlled. I have never been in a city where the residents didn’t express fear.
Washington, D.C.
I worked in Washington, D.C. for 25 years as the senior specialist for crime prevention and statistics for the USDOJ’s clearinghouse, and then as the director of information services for the National Crime Prevention Council before eventually transitioning to the senior spokesperson for a federal criminal justice agency.
I visited every part of the nation’s capital and spoke to hundreds of residents and community leaders, and I found that fear of crime was considerable among residents. I have never seen a city where entire neighborhoods have bars on every door or window.
Reported crime (most crime isn’t reported) in D.C. and other cities has decreased in recent years, giving D.C. and targeted cities reasons to object to federal interventions of National Guard troops and federal agents. Nevertheless, fear of crime remains high in D.C. and elsewhere, impacting a personal sense of safety and degrading the quality of life for many of its residents.
Crime in DC
· D.C. is among the higher-crime large cities in terms of violent crime, homicide rate and robbery rate, but it is not at the top of the list.
· Its homicide rate (25.5 per 100,000) places it in the top 15 cities nationally.
· For robbery, D.C. is critically high (3rd highest) among cities 50,000+ as of 2024.
· There are endless examples of robberies, homicides and carjackings in D.C., mostly at the hands of juveniles and younger offenders.
The Sources Below Provide Different Perspectives Regarding The President’s Actions
I analyzed crime statistics for decades, and the short answer regarding President Trump’s actions is yes, it’s working, and no, it’s too soon to tell:
President Trump’s decision this summer to assert federal control over the District of Columbia’s police force marked one of the boldest federal interventions in a major city’s public safety strategy in decades. His stated goal: to confront the violent crime surge that had long plagued the nation’s capital.
Supporters of the move argue that the results speak for themselves. In the month following the federal takeover, preliminary crime data from the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) reportedly showed sharp declines across nearly every major category.
Homicides — a grim barometer of public safety — fell by more than 60 percent compared to the month prior. Property crimes also dropped significantly: burglaries and thefts from vehicles decreased by over 40 percent, motor vehicle thefts declined by roughly 35 percent, and robberies were down by nearly 20 percent.
These reductions were observed across all seven police districts in the city, affecting both affluent neighborhoods and historically high-crime areas. Advocates credit tighter coordination among federal agencies, increased National Guard presence and a more aggressive policing posture.
“Living in crime and danger is a choice, not an inevitability,” one administration official said. “The data shows what can happen when leadership and accountability replace excuses.”
The central question now is whether the District’s political leadership will continue these strategies once federal control ends — or revert to the policies that critics say allowed the crisis to worsen in the first place.
It’s Too Early To Judge The Impact Of The President’s Actions
Not everyone agrees that the drop in reported crime reflects a lasting or direct effect of the federal intervention.
Jeff Asher, a crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, urges caution in concluding short-term trends. “The most common question I’ve been asked since mid-August has been some variation of, ‘What effect has the deployment of the National Guard and federal law enforcement had on D.C. crime?’” he said. “My answer pretty much every time has been: It’s too soon to say much with confidence.”
Crime, Asher notes, fluctuates for complex reasons that often have little to do with any single policy shift. “Trends can change suddenly for reasons that aren’t well understood,” he explained. “You generally need a longer timeframe to separate a real trend from normal variation.”
Asher points out that D.C. and other major cities were already seeing gradual declines in violent crime before the federal intervention. “Analyzing an event like this is especially tricky when crime is already trending downward,” he said. “How do you know whether it’s the policy or just a continuation of that trend?”
According to his early review of available data, there is some evidence of accelerated declines in shootings and certain property crimes, but little indication that overall violent crime has shifted dramatically. “It’s not clear whether these trends will continue, abate or reverse,” he concluded. “Ultimately, figuring out whether any changes are real — and why — will take longer.”
A Developing Story
The D.C. experiment has reignited a national debate over the role of federal power in local policing. For supporters, it’s proof that decisive action can make cities safer. For skeptics, it’s a reminder that crime statistics — especially over short periods — can be misleading without deeper analysis.
Whether Washington’s current calm represents a turning point or a temporary dip remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: The eyes of policymakers across the country are watching what happens next in the nation’s capital.
What I can say is that the president’s actions are supported by D.C.’s Metropolitan Police Department’s union, who openly welcome the president’s interventions.
The DC Police Union
The DC Police Union, representing more than 3,000 officers of the Metropolitan Police Department (MPD), issued a blistering condemnation of the dire conditions plaguing the department, driven by chronic mismanagement, neglect and betrayal by city leadership. The MPD is crumbling under the weight of unprecedented staffing shortages, inhumane working conditions, radical partisan legislation, unrelenting crime spikes and a leadership culture that prioritizes optics over accountability.
Regardless of the false narrative that “crime is down,” the city continues to be plagued with crime and violence at a rate beyond the capabilities of these crippling staffing numbers. Officers are forced to work over 2 million hours annually, equivalent to 1,000 full-time jobs, pushing them to the brink of exhaustion and compromising their ability to serve effectively.
Conclusions
From the perspective of the police officers working in Washington, D.C., and after decades of talking to D.C. residents about their crime and fear of crime concerns, it’s probable that the actions of the president are welcomed.
However, it’s equally probable that the political leadership and some residents in the city see the president’s actions as an infringement of home rule and a violation of the right of elective representatives to govern themselves. Immigration enforcement without prior criminal charges beyond illegal entry causes some discomfort.
Yet after attending multiple meetings about crime in the nation’s capital and additional cities, I never heard anyone stating that they were accepting or comfortable with the level of criminal activity in their neighborhoods or the lack of a police response.
If the D.C. police union’s observations are correct, additional resources were necessary.
As the president contemplates similar actions in other cities, the eyes of the nation are fixed on the experience of Washington, D.C. With the accumulation of additional data, we will have an opportunity to better evaluate the impact.
But for the moment, the overall experience seems to be positive as to the enhanced safety of D.C. residents. D.C. police officers welcome the intervention. It’s a work in progress.
Leonard Adam Sipes, Jr.is a retired federal senior spokesperson. A former Adjunct Associate Professor of Criminology and Public Affairs - University of Maryland. Former advisor to the “McGruff-Take a Bite Out of Crime” national media campaign. Past police officer. Aspiring drummer. Operator of CrimeinAmerica.net. His book based on thirty-five years of criminal justice public relations,” Success with the Media: Everything You Need to Survive Reporters and Your Organization” is available at Amazon and additional booksellers. He can also be found @ leonardsipes.com
